With the two major news topics in NZ currently the Financial Market Turmoil and the upcoming NZ General Election the following website is of particular interest.
iPredict is New Zealands first real money predictions market. At a time when everyone is debating whether the current market should be left to sort itself out (as general theory suggests it would) or should be bailed out it interesting to observe what is, from my point of view, a new type of market.
Prediction Markets have actually been around since 1988 and harness the wisdom of crowds.
Like a stock market, stocks can be bought and traded and based on this trading a price for a predication is established that represents the crowds wisdom.
The majority of the current ‘stocks’ on iPredict deal with our upcoming election. Even if you don’t want to become a trader it does provide some interesting insight.
Research shows that Prediction Markets have a very high success rate and from an election point of view the reasoning for this is:
Prediction markets beat political polling for two reasons. First, they ask the right question. Pollsters ask who you will vote for. Prediction markets ask who is going to win. Second, prediction market traders put money where their mouths are, so it pays to do a little homework.
iPredict is owned by Victoria Link Ltd, itself wholly owned by Victoria University of Wellington, and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR), also in Wellington. Our primary purpose is academic research.
While iPredict allows traders to make money I have found it just as interesting to monitor the stocks without actually yet purchasing.
Check out the website for more information and to sign up if you are keen to trade!
Thanks for the mention Campbell 🙂